Climbing the Long Tail: Stage 1

2022-12-23

Like any climbing adventure, having a solid basecamp to work from can mean the difference between hitting the summit or foundering on the trail.

Let's start with some basics.

Planning

If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there.
-- Lewis Carroll

For writers, planning seems to be the thing you do after you realize you've written something. So, take a step back now that you have written The Story.

Everybody starts at zero. It's true in most careers. It's especially true for writers. Even if you've written The Story, there's still a mountain ahead of you.

The big question you need to answer is how far do you want to climb? You don't need to have a final answer. Take it one step at a time.

Stage 0 - Before You Begin

Don't assume you're going to fail. What happens if you succeed beyond your wildest imaginings? Or maybe just a little bit and you have to file taxes? Start thinking about these things.

A business name. Think of it as your imprint or publishing house. It might be the name you use for your website's URL. Once you've picked one, follow through and register it with your state. My bank helped me set it up, but they just went to the state registry website and filled in the form with my name. Registry costs something. It varies by state. I also have to pay a small fee once a year to keep my record active. Again, it varies by state.
A bank account for that business. In the beginning it seems like a waste of time and resources but come tax time, you'll be glad you have everything business related in one account. Being able to prove to the taxman that you only made $2.18 from your business is much better than having to find that $2.18 buried in your personal accounts. Trust me on that. Besides, you might need to pay for something for the business. The tax deductions help, especially in the beginning.
A website. Ideally one that you control with a URL that represents you - not The Story. They're relatively inexpensive and fairly easy to set up. The sooner you build it the sooner you'll be able to take advantage of it. Budget $120 a year. You probably won't need that much money but you will - eventually - want that much web presence.
An email list service. This is your direct link to your fans. You probably don't have any now but start collecting them as soon as possible. Addresses are better than money in the bank. They earn interest. There are free levels for most of the major providers. Ex: MailerLite has a full-function free tier for up to 1000 addresses.

You don't have to do all this right now. You should be thinking about it and making plans for how to do it ASAP. The sooner you get this moving, the sooner you can take advantage of them - and one less thing you need to find time and focus for later.

Stage 1 - Side Hustle

Stage 1 takes us up to the first plateau - side hustle. Ideally, profitable side hustle but at least affordable hobby level. A lot of writers get to hobby, but can't make that final push to affordable.

Key resources:

Time

Focus

Attention

You will never have enough of these. They are finite so you need to husband them. Writing is neither a sprint or a marathon. It's a way of life. Pace yourself for the long haul.

Common pitfalls:

Writing in a form that earns very little

Writing in a genre with a small following

Spending too much on the first one, counting on it to finance the second

Writers need to write what they need to write, regardless of what kind of market exists for their work. They also need to be realistic about their expectations. If you're writing a memoir, don't expect to earn novel money.

Certain forms earn more than others.

Poetry, I think you have to it for the love of the art. I don't know anybody who's making any money at it. It may be the cheapest to produce, but it's difficult to find an audience for it.

The short story market appeals to a lot of writers but it's a very hard market to get traction in. Expenses are low, particularly if you don't need to pay for your own editing or any cover art. Themed anthologies appear every so often that can offer opportunities but the market for those is limited. If this is your jam, be prepared to write a lot of stories. I always remember Ray Bradbury's advice. “Write a short story every week. It's not possible to write 52 bad short stories in a row.”

Novels provide the best return. They sell for the most in the stores. They earn the most royalties from publishers although advances can work for you or against you, depending. Novels in a series pay the best, although many writers don't like writing them and many publishers don't like licensing them.

Certain genres have larger audiences than others.

Romance is the queen. In the US, about half of all novels sold fall into one category or another of romance. If you write romance, you'll be sharing the largest fiction audience in the US with all the other romance writers. That's not a bad thing. It's a massive audience scattered across a plethora of sub-categories, but the number of writers in this genre is, likewise, large. Getting established may take some work.

Action/Thriller and Speculative Fiction trade places periodically but they represent something like 35% of the US fiction market between them. It may not sound like much but if you're trying to climb the long tail, you don't need very much of it to move you quite a ways up. Self-published authors often find eager readers tucked into the many categories and sub-categories in these two large umbrella genres.

Everything else shares the last 15%. Westerns, literary fiction, you name it. If you write something that hasn't got a home in those first three, you'll have to work a little harder to find your audience.

Write what you need to, just be aware that the form and genre you write in has a bearing on how far up and how fast you climb the long tail.

Two more complication to consider here at basecamp.

Children's books and Young Adult titles have some specific issues tied to distribution. For self-publishers, these books can be a killer. They're generally purchased in physical stores by people who are not the primary audience. Most kids and early teens don't have the wherewithal to purchase them. Parents and other relatives buy them as gifts. For those writers pursuing traditional publishing, these probably aren't any more difficult than the rest to get published. Children's books are a huge market and even some adults like to read YA, which opens that nice up a bit for self-publishing as well. It's just something to consider as you plan your climb.

What about non-fiction? Non-fiction requires more than just an idea and someplace to write it down. Non-fiction requires some level of recognized expertise. It's usually very specific in terms of subject matter so the size of the individual audiences tend to be smaller. Just logic. People from all kinds of backgrounds and experiences read mysteries compared to the number of people likely interested in a book about tarot cards or model railroads.

Same holds true for creative non-fiction like memoirs and biographies. Writers write them, publishers license them, and bookstores stock them, so readers read them. It's a limitation climbers need to consider while choosing a path up the tail.

Goals

For self-publishers, a catalog of at least five titles in a single niche

For traditionally published, at least two titles for sale in the same niche

A couple of writer friends in that niche

Completed all Stage 0 objectives

Those pursuing the traditional path have a much more difficult task. With very little control of the process beyond writing it, getting those two titles out in the world will likely take years. The cash expense of publishing gets deferred because the publisher pays for production costs from the revenue collected before paying the author's royalties. The publisher may also make demands on the author regarding reader-facing activities, mistakenly called "marketing." The last hurdle involves the price windowing publishers impose, suppressing sales of one format to favor another. It's most obvious with ebooks compared to paper goods. Publishers tend to price ebooks too high to encourage readers to buy the physical copies. When they're satisfied that they've sold as much paper as they can, they bring the prices of ebooks down. It's good for the publisher, but I'm less convinced that it's good for the writer.

Tactics and Operations

Do not under any circumstances pay anybody who tells you that you can self-publish easily without all the muss and fuss if you just pay them $X,000 and let them take the worry out of uploading your files for you. If you're not uploading your files and collecting the revenues, you're not self-publishing. Anybody who tells you differently is working a scam. I have equally caustic things to say about "hybrid publishers" who want to "share the risk and reward" with you. (Don't confuse them with "hybrid authors" who self publish some works but work with a publisher for others. Different animal.)
Avoid sales and promotion activities until you have established a foothold. Your first goal is to get your catalog built. Early sales matter, but spend your time, focus, and attention on building your base catalog. It's a difficult ask, but it makes Stage 2 much easier.
Budget carefully for editing and cover art. Buy premade covers. Take your time to find a line/copy editor you can work with long term. Early on, justifying the expense of a developmental editor and/or proof reader is difficult. They have value but plan to foot the bill to produce five novels over two to three years. Once you have some reliable income flowing, you can do what seems best for your work and you'll have some idea of how to accomplish it.
Network with your peers. Cultivate contacts in your niche as well. As your catalog develops these people will likely help you find your early audience. You don't have to be buddy-buddy, but don't let the first time you contact them be for a favor.
If you're writing in a recognized genre, investigate local conventions - those that you can get to without flying or driving more than a few hours. Inquire about becoming a panelist. Talk to people in the lobby. Attend sessions and talk to the people around you. Be seen by the general attendees. Have fun. Avoid the dealer room. You won't sell enough books there to pay for the table. Your money is better spent buying somebody a beverage at the restaurant. The trip will cost you money but your goal is to be seen at the table with bigger named authors. People who come to see them will see you. Early on, that's more important than selling a dozen books.

Pro-tip: At the panels watch what the Big Names do for behavioral cues.
Key point: They almost never bring books to the table. They don't need to. Neither do you.

Basecamp Established

By this point, you should have at least a little revenue coming in. It may not fully cover your production and overhead, but you're not funding everything from your day job. You know how much each title needs to break even. You've got a base line catalog to attract readers.

If you haven't sold more than a couple of hundred units across your catalog of five novels by now, you may need to consider form and genre. Novelists writing trilogies or longer will have an easier time of this. You're the only one who can say whether or not you're comfortable with your progress.

If you're not comfortable with the progress so far, you have two choices. Quit or write the next book. Nothing sells your last book better than the next one.

If you can honestly say "writing is an affordable hobby", you may be ready to move on to Stage 2.

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